Pakistan's Air Pollution Challenge & Potential for Longer Lives

AIR QUALITY LIFE INDEX

| UPDATE FEBRUARY 2019

Pakistan’s Air Pollution

Challenge & Potential for

Longer Lives

By Michael Greenstone and Qing (Claire) Fan

Index

2 | Pakistan’s Air Pollution Challenge & Potential for Longer Lives AQLI

SUMMARY

Pakistan had the fth most polluted air in the world in 2016, due mostly to

vehicular and industrial emissions and crop burning. If sustained, this air

pollution would cut 2.7 years o the lives of the typical Pakistani, relative to

what their life expectancy would be if the World Health Organization (WHO)

guideline was met; and 2.2 years relative to its own air quality standard.

The district of Lahore suers the worst, with the average residents losing 5.3

years o their lives, relative to the WHO guideline. As the government begins

to confront the air quality problem, this analysis shows that Pakistan has

the opportunity to vastly clean up its air. If the country achieved sustained

improvements in air quality comparable to what China has achieved in recent

years, its residents would live 1.2 years longer on average. Those in Lahore

would live 1.9 years longer.

Figure 1 · Countries with Worst Air Pollution – PM

2.5

Concentration in 2016 and Life Expectancy Gain

Through Permanently Reducing PM

2.5

to WHO Guideline

Democratic Republic

of the Congo

Tajikistan

Laos

Thailand

Republic of Congo

Pakistan

China

Bangladesh

India

Nepal

2.5

Concentration (µg/m)

Years of Life Expectancy

AQLI Pakistan’s Air Pollution Challenge & Potential for Longer Lives | 3

INTRODUCTION

Pakistan’s Pollution

Challenge

Pakistan had the fifth most polluted air in the world in

2016, driven by the common culprits in much of South Asia:

emissions from vehicles, industrial activity such as brick kilns,

factories, and power plants, and crop burning (see Figure 1).

This level of air pollution is undermining Pakistanis’ health,

cutting the average life expectancy short by 2.7 years, relative

to what it would be if the WHO guideline of 10 µg/m³ for long-

term ne particulate matter (PM

2.5

) pollution was met; and

2.2 years relative to its own air quality standard of 15 µg/m³.

In 2016, 98 percent of Pakistan’s over 200 million people lived

in areas where the annual average particulate pollution level

exceeded the WHO guideline (see Figure 2). Ninety-seven percent

of the population lived in areas where it exceeded Pakistan’s

own PM

2.5

standard. These high concentrations are the result

of a 54 percent increase in PM

2.5

concentrations since 1998.

The areas of Pakistan that fare the worst are located along its

eastern border, particularly in the province of Punjab where

the average resident lives 3.8 years less relative to if the WHO

guideline was met. The most polluted district in the province,

as well as in the country, is Lahore, which includes the country’s

second-largest city with a population of 11 million. Air quality

in Lahore has declined over the last two decades: in 1998, its

pollution concentration was 33 µg/m³. By 2016, it had doubled

to 64 µg/m³—more than six times the WHO guideline. If PM

2.5

concentrations are sustained at this level, the life expectancy

lost would be 5.3 years for the typical person, relative to what

it would be if the WHO guideline was met. In Faisalabad, the

district containing Pakistan’s third-largest city, residents lose

an average of 4.8 years, relative to the WHO guideline.

The Dawn of a New Era?

The Pakistani government has begun to respond to the air

pollution challenge. In 2017, the government of Punjab

took emergency measures to ban crop burning and enforce

emissions regulations on factories and vehicles. They also

experimented with shutting down coal-red power plants to

control short-term air pollution, although this led to power

outages.

In 2018, Prime Minister Imran Khan came into power and

told his cabinet that pollution “is a serious issue that must

be addressed.” Following a court order, his government began

to restart or install air quality monitors. Khan also shuttered

factories in 12 highly-polluted districts for two months this

winter, and has pushed brick kiln owners to shift to cleaner

technologies. Some kiln operators have been ned for using

the dirtiest technologies, as have some farmers for their crop

burning. Additionally, the government is considering setting

higher emissions standards for vehicles.

METHODOLOGY

The life expectancy calculations made by the AQLI are based on a

pair of peer-reviewed studies, Chen et al. (2013) and Ebenstein et

al. (2017), co-authored by Michael Greenstone, that exploit a unique

natural experiment in China. By comparing two subgroups of the

population that experienced prolonged exposure to different levels

of particulate air pollution, the studies were able to plausibly isolate

the effect of particulates air pollution from other factors that affect

health. The more recent of the two studies found that sustained

exposure to an additional 10 μg/m

of PM

reduces life expectancy

by 0.64 years. In terms of PM

2.5

, this translates to the relationship

that an additional 10 μg/m

of PM

2.5

reduces life expectancy

by 0.98 years. The AQLI applied this ﬁnding to Pakistan’s PM

2.5

concentrations, taken from satellite-derived PM

2.5

measurements,

to determine the current life expectancy impacts of air pollution

in Pakistan and the potential impacts of air pollution reduction. To

learn more about the methodology used by the AQLI, visit: aqli.epic.

uchicago.edu/about/methodology

Figure 2 · PM

2.5

Concentration in 2016

2.5

(μg/m

)



0 to 10

 10 to 15

 15 to 30

 30 to 40

 40 to 50

 50 to 60

 60 to 70

Note: Pakistan’s regions and borders follow the Survey of Pakistan.

4 | Pakistan’s Air Pollution Challenge & Potential for Longer Lives AQLI

Figure 3 · Life Expectancy Gain from Achieving 32% Reduction in PM

2.5

in 10 Largest Cities and All of Pakistan

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

All Pakistan

Quetta

Karachi

Hyderabad

Peshwar

Rawalpindi

Islamabad

Multan

Gujranwala

Faisalabad

Lahore

Note: This graph includes the 10 cities with the largest populations according to Pakistan’s 2017 Census. Since the AQLI’s data for Pakistan is at the district level, the life expectancy statistics depicted

are those associated with the districts that contain the cities. For details on other districts and cities, please see the Appendix.

Figure 4 · Change in PM

2.5

from 32% PM

2.5

Reduction

2.5

(μg/m

)

 -5 to -2

 -10 to -5

 -15 to -10

 -20 to -15

Note: Pakistan’s regions and borders follow the Survey of Pakistan.

Figure 5 · Life Expectancy Gain from Achieving 32% PM

2.5

Reduction

Gain in Life

Expectancy

(Years)



< 0.1

 0.1 to 0.5

 0.5 to 1.0

 1.0 to 2.0

Note: Pakistan’s regions and borders follow the Survey of Pakistan.

AQLI Pakistan’s Air Pollution Challenge & Potential for Longer Lives | 5

RESULTS

Potential Impacts

Throughout history, countries all over the world have

experienced intense air pollution during periods of rapid

industrialization. At the same time, in countries where

citizens demand change and governments follow-up

with strong policies, there are successful track records of

air pollution reductions. That legacy of environmental

improvement is evidence that Pakistan’s pollution today does

not need to be tomorrow’s fate.

In fact, China has seen tremendous progress in improving air

quality in the last few years. In 2014, the government declared

a “war against pollution” and instituted a nationwide plan

to confront it. According to measurements from ground-level

monitors, particulate pollution in China’s cities has been

reduced by 32 percent on average since the ‘war against

pollution’ was announced.

Though these reductions

are generally larger than the reductions found with the

satellite-derived pollution data used in the AQLI, if they are

confirmed and sustained over time, life expectancy would

improve by 2.3 years. India, having declared its own war

against pollution in January 2019, would be on a similar

path if it succeeds in meeting its stated pollution reduction

target of 20-30 percent.

Pakistan has the opportunity to experience the same

progress. If Pakistan were to achieve the same 32 percent

pollution reduction experienced in China and to sustain

it, its residents would live 1.2 years longer on average. This

would take the country 52 percent of the way to achieving

its air quality standard and 43 percent of the way toward

meeting the WHO guideline. Those in the highly-polluted

district of Lahore would live 2 years longer (see Figures 3-5).

1The monitor data generally show higher PM2.5 concentrations, and larger percent reductions, than the satellite-derived pollution data used in the AQLI.

For more information about our analysis of Chinese monitor data, see “Is China Winning its War on Pollution” at aqli.epic.uchicago.edu/reports

CONCLUSION

According to the AQLI, PM

2.5

air pollution is shortening the

average person’s life expectancy by about 1.8 years globally.

Pakistan had the fth highest amount of particulate pollution

in the world in 2016. As a result, the typical Pakistani is losing

2.7 years due to this pollution. In some places, like Lahore, the

loss is as much as 5.3 years.

In the last several decades other countries, including Japan, the

United States, and the United Kingdom, have enacted and suc-

cessfully enforced policies to reduce air pollution, underscoring

that today’s air pollution need not be tomorrow’s fate. And

more recently, China has greatly reduced PM

2.5

concentrations

after “declaring a war on pollution.” The AQLI makes concrete

that the benets of these policies can be measured in perhaps

the most important metric — longer and healthier lives (see

Appendix).

Note: The AQLI follows the Survey of Pakistan’s delineation of Pakistan’s national borders and the disputed territory of Jammu and

Kashmir. The country-level statistics in this report were aggregated excluding the region marked as disputed in this map.

“If Pakistan’s government is

successful in following through

on their recent plans to reduce air

pollution, the reward will be longer

and healthier lives for Pakistanis.”

Michael Greenstone, Milton Friedman

Distinguished Service Professor in Economics,

the College and the Harris School; Director, EPIC

6 | Pakistan’s Air Pollution Challenge & Potential for Longer Lives AQLI

Appendix Table I Current and Potential PM

2.5

and Life Expectancy Impact in 50 Most

Populous Districts

To WHO

Guideline of

10 µg/m

To National

Standard of

15 µg/m

By 32%

Province District

Population

(Millions)

2016

After 32%

Reduction

All Pakistan 203.2 37 25 2.7 2.2 1.2

Sindh Karachi City 22.4 16 11 0.5 0.1 0.5

Punjab Lahore 9.4 64 43 5.3 4.8 2.0

Punjab Faisalabad 8.1 59 40 4.8 4.3 1.8

Punjab Gujranwala 5.1 58 40 4.7 4.3 1.8

Punjab Rawalpindi 4.9 41 28 3.0 2.5 1.3

Punjab Rahim Yar Khan 4.7 28 19 1.8 1.3 0.9

Punjab Multan 4.6 42 28 3.1 2.6 1.3

Punjab Sialkot 4.0 57 39 4.6 4.2 1.8

Punjab Sargodha 4.0 49 34 3.9 3.4 1.5

Punjab Muzaffargarh 3.9 38 26 2.8 2.3 1.2

Punjab Bahawalpur 3.6 34 23 2.4 1.9 1.1

Punjab Kasur 3.5 61 41 5.0 4.5 1.9

Punjab Okara 3.3 59 40 4.8 4.3 1.8

Punjab Vehari 3.1 44 30 3.3 2.8 1.4

Punjab Khanewal 3.1 46 31 3.5 3.1 1.5

Punjab Gujrat 3.1 52 35 4.1 3.6 1.6

Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa

Peshawar 3.1 34 23 2.3 1.9 1.1

Punjab Bahawalnagar 3.0 42 29 3.1 2.7 1.3

Punjab Sheikhupura 3.0 61 42 5.0 4.6 1.9

Punjab Jhang 2.8 48 33 3.7 3.2 1.5

Punjab Sahiwal 2.7 55 38 4.4 3.9 1.7

Punjab Dera Ghazi Khan 2.4 34 23 2.3 1.9 1.1

Punjab Toba Tek Singh 2.4 50 34 3.9 3.4 1.6

Sindh Khairpur 2.2 26 18 1.6 1.1 0.8

1 Population statistics were aggregated from LandScan (2015) gridded population data. The all-Pakistan

population was aggregated using the national borders depicted by the Survey of Pakistan.

2 As China achieved from 20132017. For more information, see Is China Winning its War on Pollution?

2.5

Concentration (µg/m

)

Life Expectancy Gain (Years) from Reducing

2.5

from 2016 Concentration

AQLI Pakistan’s Air Pollution Challenge & Potential for Longer Lives | 7

Appendix Table I Current and Potential PM

2.5

and Life Expectancy Impact in 50 Most

Populous Districts

To WHO

Guideline of

10 µg/m

To National

Standard of

15 µg/m

By 32%

Province District

Population

(Millions)

2016

After 32%

Reduction

Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa

Mardan 2.2 35 24 2.5 2.0 1.1

Sindh Hyderabad 2.2 19 13 0.9 0.4 0.6

Sindh Sanghar 2.1 20 14 1.0 0.5 0.6

Punjab Attock 1.9 37 25 2.6 2.1 1.2

Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa

Swat 1.9 25 17 1.5 1.0 0.8

Punjab Pakpattan 1.9 54 37 4.3 3.8 1.7

Punjab Narowal 1.9 61 42 5.0 4.5 1.9

Punjab Nankana Sahib 1.9 60 41 4.9 4.4 1.9

Punjab Lodhran 1.7 41 28 3.0 2.5 1.3

Punjab Mandi Bahauddin 1.7 51 35 4.0 3.5 1.6

Punjab Layyah 1.7 41 28 3.0 2.5 1.3

Punjab Rajanpur 1.7 31 21 2.0 1.6 1.0

Sindh Badin 1.6 18 12 0.8 0.3 0.6

Punjab Chakwal 1.6 39 27 2.8 2.3 1.2

Sindh Dadu 1.6 22 15 1.2 0.7 0.7

Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa

Swabi 1.6 36 25 2.6 2.1 1.1

Sindh Naushahro Feroze 1.6 24 16 1.4 0.9 0.8

Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa

Charsadda 1.6 34 23 2.3 1.9 1.1

Punjab Mianwali 1.6 41 28 3.0 2.5 1.3

Punjab Bhakkar 1.6 42 29 3.2 2.7 1.3

Sindh

Shaheed

Benazirabad

1.6 22 15 1.1 0.6 0.7

Islamabad

Capital Territory

Islamabad 1.5 41 28 3.1 2.6 1.3

Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa

Mansehra 1.5 30 20 1.9 1.5 0.9

Sindh Larkana 1.5 27 18 1.7 1.2 0.9

Punjab Chiniot 1.4 55 37 4.4 3.9 1.7

Sindh Ghotki 1.4 26 18 1.6 1.1 0.8

2.5

Concentration (µg/m

)

Life Expectancy Gain (Years) from Reducing

2.5

from 2016 Concentration

ABOUT THE AIR QUALITY LIFE INDEX

The AQLI is a pollution index that translates particulate air pollution into perhaps the most important

metric that exists: its impact on life expectancy. Developed by the University of Chicago’s Milton

Friedman Professor in Economics Michael Greenstone and his team at the Energy Policy Institute

at the University of Chicago (EPIC), the AQLI is rooted in recent research that quanties the causal

relationship between long-term human exposure to air pollution and life expectancy. The Index then

combines this research with hyper-localized, global particulate measurements, yielding unprecedented

insight into the true cost of particulate pollution in communities around the world. The Index also

illustrates how air pollution policies can increase life expectancy when they meet the World Health

Organization’s guideline for what is considered a safe level of exposure, existing national air quality

standards, or user-dened air quality levels. This information can help to inform local communities

and policymakers about the importance of air pollution policies in concrete terms.

ABOUT EPIC

The Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC) is confronting the global energy challenge

by working to ensure that energy markets provide access to reliable, aordable energy, while limiting

environmental and social damages. We do this using a unique interdisciplinary approach that translates

robust, data-driven research into real-world impacts through strategic outreach and training for the

next generation of global energy leaders.