Toulouse - 13 June 2023
Global Market Forecast 2023
World’s population by density
Source: CIESIN, SEDAC, Airbus GMF
2
Air transport brings the world’s population centres together
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023
Los Angeles - New York
5 hours
New York - London
7 hours
Tokyo - Los Angeles
10 hours
Bogota - Sao Paulo
6 hours
Casablanca - Jeddah
6 hours
Paris - Beijing
10 hours
Astana - Beijing
5 hours
Perth - Sydney
4 hours
Mauritius - Delhi
8 hours
Air transport has given us simpler and faster connections
Source: BOAC Timetable 1957, Airbus GMF
3
London
Istanbul
Karachi
Kolkata
Singapore
Sydney
Darwin
2025
~20 hours
1957
5 days trip
1952
6 weeks trip
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023
Source: OAG (September data), Airbus GMF
4
Air transport connects more countries than ever, facilitating exchanges
New country pairs that have been created between 1999-2019:
1,020 new worldwide country pairs (+33%)
469 intra-regional (+30%)
551 inter-continental (+36%)
New additional country pairs served by a non stop flight between 1999-2019
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023
Post-Covid capacity has recovered quickly as restrictions were lifted
5
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023
Source OAG, Airbus GMF
North America
Latin America
Africa
Europe & CIS
Middle East
PRC
Asia/Pacific
(excl. PRC)
Intl.Dom.
100%
102%
101%
Intl.
Dom.
100%
114%
92%
100%
Intl.Dom.
112%
104%
Intl.Dom.
100%
112%
104%
Intl.Dom.
100%
101%
90%
Intl.Dom.
100%
126%
41%
Intl.Dom.
100%
101%
81%
World
InternationalDomestic
100%
108%
89%
May 2023 (Dom.)
May 2023 (Intl.)
ASKs compared to 2019 level
Air transport is a major contributor to GDP and Employment
6
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023
North America
Latin America
Africa
Europe & CIS
Middle East
Asia/Pacific
Source: ATAG’s Aviation Benefits Beyond Borders, September 2020, Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF
* Employment figures include direct, indirect, induced and tourism catalytic jobs
Contribution of air transport
to regional GDP 2018
Contribution of air transport
to Employment* 2018
World
4.1% GDP
$3.5 trillion
87.7M jobs
3.1%
46.7M
5.0%
8.7M
3.5%
7.7M
4.4%
13.5M
2.7%
7.7M
7.6%
3.4M
Air transport is tightly linked to economic development and geography
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023
Source: IHS Markit, Sabre GDD, Airbus GMF
7
2019 yearly trips per capita (bubble size proportional to country population)
GDP per capita (Purchasing Power Parity $ - 2015)
Source: IATA, ICAO, Airbus, EDGAR CO
2
emissions, Airbus GMF
* Note: commercial air transport direct share of total anthropogenic CO
2
fossil emissions (excluding land use change)
8
Index base 100 in 1990
Efficiency improvement has enabled democratisation of air travel
CO
2
emissions per RPK halved through technology and operational improvements
Air transport share
of CO
2
emissions*
Fuel burn per RPK
-2.6% per year
Fuel consumption
2.1% per year
RPKs
4.8% per year
~90 gCO
2
per
passenger kilometre
in 2019
4.5 billion
passengers carried
in 2019
2019
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023
Share CO
2
emissions (%)
GMF23 is an exploratory scenario
Source: Airbus GMF
9
Now 2050
EXPLORATORY (forecast)
NORMATIVE (backcast)
From the
current state
of knowledge
From the
defined target
GMF 2023
STEPS - Stated Policies Scenario
APS - Announced Pledges Scenario
Sustainable Development Scenario - SDS
Net Zero Emission - NZE
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023
Source: IHS Markit, Airbus GMF
* Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2015 prices
10
Underlying outlook for GDP, trade and population growth
World GDP
+2.5%
CAGR 2019-2042
World trade
+2.9%
CAGR 2019-2042
Urbanisation
+1.6 bn
from 2019 to 2042
World population
+1.5 bn
from 2019 to 2042
Middle Class*
+1.9 bn
from 2019 to 2042
GDP forecast
SAF: penetration, emission reduction factor
and prices
Market-Based Measures: scope and prices
Fuel efficiency
Traffic growth scenario median at
3.6% CAGR
Sensitivities approach to deal with future uncertainties
Source: Airbus GMF
11
Sensitivity on key drivers
Passenger traffic 2019-2042 CAGR
Number of traffic forecast scenarios
Possible headwinds:
Environmental regulations,
energy availability, geopolitical
instability etc…
Possible tailwinds:
More stable world order,
further liberalisation, etc…
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023
Modest growth in mature flows…
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023
Source: Airbus GMF
12
Top 20 traffic flows (RPK)
Annual RPK (billions)
CAGR 2019-2042 (%)
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023
Source: Airbus GMF
13
Top 20 traffic flows (RPK)
…and stronger growth in Asia and Middle East, led by India and PRC
Annual RPK (billions)
CAGR 2019-2042 (%)
Stay
(incl. 2020-22 deliveries)
Source: Airbus GMF
Notes: Passenger aircraft above 100 seats & freighters with a payload above 10t
14
Number of aircraft
• 22,880 aircraft in-service
beginning of 2020:
– 25% will stay in-service
(including 2020-22
deliveries)
– 75% will be replaced
• 40,850 new deliveries
2023-2042:
– 58% for growth
– 42% for replacement
Grow
Replace
New deliveries
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023
Demand for 40,850 new passenger & freighter aircraft
Demand for 40,850 new passenger & freighter aircraft over 2023-2042
Source: Airbus GMF
Note: Demand for passenger aircraft above 100 seats & freighters with a payload above 10t
32,630 aircraft
80% share of total new deliveries
8,220 aircraft (inc. 920 new-built freighters)
20% share of total new deliveries
Typically Single-Aisle Typically Widebody
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023
15
40,850 new deliveries between 2023 and 2042
16
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023
Source Airbus GMF
Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) & Freighters (≥ 10 tons payload) | Figures rounded to nearest 10
North America
Latin America
Africa
Europe & CIS
Middle East
PRC
Asia/Pacific
(excl. PRC)
Typically Single Aisle
Typically Widebody
Express air cargo growth will outpace General air cargo
17
World air cargo traffic +3.2% CAGR 2019-2042
250 billion
FTK
2042
520 billion
FTK
2019
Express
boosted by e-commerce
+4.9%
CAGR 2019-2042
Express
25%
General 83%
General 75%
Express
17%
Source: IHS Markit, Seabury, IATA, Airbus GMF
General cargo
dominates the market
+2.7%
CAGR 2019-2042
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023
World freighter fleet in service will reach 3,230 aircraft by 2042
18
Source: Airbus GMF
Note: Freighters with a payload above 10t
Grow
New-build
Replace
Stay
(incl. 2020-2022 deliveries)
Conversions
3,230
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023
Number of freighter aircraft
Source: Airbus GMF
Note: Freighters with a payload above 10t
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023
1,020 aircraft 890 aircraft 600 aircraft
Single-Aisle
(10t - 40t)
Mid-size Widebody
(40t - 80t)
Large Widebody
(> 80t)
19
Global demand for 2,510 freighters, over 2023-2042
Airlines require the latest, most efficient and lowest-emission aircraft
Fleet modernisation:
A strategic hedge against high energy costs
75% of fleet not yet latest generation
% of in-service fleet by aircraft generation
13%
25%
5%
202220192017
Source: Cirium, Airbus GMF
Passenger aircraft above 100 seats – Year end | New generation: A220, A320neo Fam., A330neo, A350, Emb-E2, 737Max, 787
Freighter
Single-Aisle Widebody
Backlog:
5,983 aircraft
Backlog:
520 aircraft
Backlog:
432 aircraft
Backlog:
187 aircraft
Backlog:
39 aircraft
Airbus product line delivers 20 - 40% fuel burn reduction
End of May 2023
Latest generation aircraft
Operations
Sustainable Aviation Fuel
Disruptive technology
CO
2
Offsetting & Capture
Source: Airbus GMF
22
Airbus is leading aviation decarbonisation
Acting on all levers
2050+
Today
Continuous incremental improvement
Expanding upgrades / performance & trajectory
optimisation
Moving from 50 to 100% capability by 2030
Developing disruptive aerodynamics / airframe / propulsion / energy
Supporting CORSIA & carbon removals
Fleet renewal / 25% less CO
2
Services portfolio
Up to 50% SAF capability
→ Already 25% CO
2
reduction compared to previous generation aircraft
→ improving aircraft operational efficiency → Albatross
→ Fello’Fly
→ eXtra Performance Wing / ZEROe
→ DACCS scale-up and advocacy
Latest generation aircraft
● Up to 25% lower unit fuel and CO
2
vs.
previous generation - across the entire
Airbus Family
● Only 25%* of passenger in-service fleet are
latest generation aircraft
● A350F will be the first latest generation
freighter on the market
* Passenger aircraft above 100 seats – End 2022 / New generation: A220, A320neo Fam., A330neo, A350,
Emb-E2, 737Max, 787
Operations & Infrastructures
● Increased efficiency of the current fleet,
by up to 10%, with a range of solutions
● Upgraded aircraft systems
● Optimized flight trajectories
● Decarbonised on-ground operations
● Air Traffic Management
Sustainable Aviation Fuels
● Flying with 100% SAF reduces lifecycle
CO
2
emissions by around 80%
● All Airbus aircraft are already certified to 50%,
certification up to 100% by end of decade
● Industrial uptake needed to increase SAF’s
availability
● Coalitions and partnerships signed to foster
production of SAF
Disruptive technologies
● Development, testing and maturity-based
deployment of advanced technologies
● Ambition to bring a zero emission aircraft to the
market by 2035
● Hydrogen as a fuel for turbines, for electric
motors via fuel cells and to produce SAF
● Developing advanced solutions for hydrogen
or kerosene fuelled aircraft (aerodynamics /
airframe / propulsion / hybridization)
Carbon removal options
Nature-based solutions
● Widely used as offsets for
compensation in voluntary and
regulated markets
Point-Source Carbon Capture
● Emerging technology
● Competes with other industries
● Necessary as a transition solution
to develop synthetic fuels at scale
Direct Air Carbon Capture
● Emerging technology
● Enables credits from CO2 storage
and CO2 as feedstock for synthetic
fuels
● Carbon credits from storage can
only be used on voluntary markets
or local carbon markets
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2023
Source: Airbus GMF
Takeaways
29
Passenger Traffic
2019-2042 CAGR
Freight Traffic
2019-2042 CAGR
Fleet in service
beginning of 2020
Fleet in service in 2042
New deliveries 2023-2042
3.6%
3.2%
22,880 aircraft
46,560 aircraft
40,850 aircraft
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Operations LTD, Airbus Operations SL, Airbus China LTD, Airbus (Tianjin) Final Assembly
Company LTD, Airbus (Tianjin) Delivery Centre LTD). All rights reserved. Confidential and
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